Monday, June 22, 2020

Merrill Lynch and Goldman estimate Q2 GDP down 33-35%

Via Calculated Risk, the latest forecasts for the second quarter of 2020:
Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 33% Q2 decline is around 8% decline from Q1 (SA). 
From Merrill Lynch: We revise up 2Q GDP to -35% qoq saar from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate] 
From Goldman Sachs: We have adjusted our real GDP growth forecasts and now expect -33% in Q2, +33% in Q3, and +8% in Q4 (vs. -36%, +29%, and +11% previously) in qoq annualized terms. [June 18 estimate]
Well, that's bad. Here's hoping the damage isn't too deep. 
at

1 comment:

  1. AnonymousJune 22, 2020 at 11:52 AM

    Many European countries did stricter lock-downs and kept them in place longer and now have relatively low coronavirus numbers. In the US we opened up a bit early and still have moderately high coronavirus numbers. It will be interesting to see how the next 6 months play out and to compare economic data and per capita death rates between the US and European countries at the end of the year.

    ReplyDelete

looks like Blogger doesn't work with anonymous comments from Chrome browsers at the moment - works in Microsoft Edge, or from Chrome with a Blogger account - sorry! CJ 3/21/20