For supposition 2, I think I have some speculative data that I am not yet willing to share. Nevertheless, I will ask the question this way: does anyone believe that class sizes for Fall 2026 will be higher than Fall 2025? I don’t. If so, what does that mean?
I believe it means this - for students other than the very strongest senior undergraduates (strong letters of recommendations, significant research contributions*), I would think very seriously about a plan B, C or D regarding What To Do if you do not get into the graduate program of your choice. I don’t know what those potential plans might be, but they include going to a somewhat less desirable university, taking a position in a laboratory as a post-baccalaureate student** or going into industry.
If this indeed is the beginning of a lengthy system-wide slowdown in the number of chemistry PhDs in the United States, while, yes, it will be theoretically good for incumbent PhDs, I believe this is very bad for the American chemical research enterprise, as fewer workers per year is going to ultimately result in less research production as opposed to more. But this is all very speculatory, and the known immediate impact will be much more keenly felt by the senior undergraduate (those graduating class of 2026.)
Finally,
a biology professor made an interesting counter-argument. If you believe (as I speculate) that there will be fewer entering international students into American science graduate schools in Fall 2026, is it possible that fewer international students mean that the classes will shrink but the number of domestic students will stay the same? I am skeptical about this, but I think it really depends on the individual dynamics within each chemistry department.
I can’t see how this is good news for anyone, but I am particularly struck by the negative consequences for next year’s graduates. I wish this were not so, and I am not quite sure what to do about my knowledge, other than warn people. Sorry.
UPDATE (11/10/25, 3 PM Eastern): added a second link to my previous predictions from April, which were incorrect about who was impacted the most.
*I'm not a R1 professor of chemistry, just a random guy. Ask your professors if they agree with me.
**Is this a thing in chemistry? I saw a professor suggesting this on social media, and I have to say I’m not quite sure of its value, i.e. it seems to me a very expensive (compared to an industry job) means of securing a position in a future entering class.
