American Chemistry Council: Regional production down 0.1% in June.

Via the American Chemistry Council:  

WASHINGTON (July 21, 2022) — The U.S. Chemical Production Regional Index (U.S. CPRI) eased by 0.1% in June following gains of 0.5% in May and 1.0% in April, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Chemical output was mixed across regions. The U.S. CPRI is measured as a three-month moving average (3MMA).

On a 3MMA basis, chemical production within segments was mixed in June. There were gains in the production of synthetic rubber, industrial gases, coatings, manufactured fibers, synthetic dyes and pigments, adhesives, other organic chemicals, crop protection chemicals, other specialty chemicals, and fertilizers. These gains were offset by lower production of plastic resins, organic chemicals, and consumer products. 

As nearly all manufactured goods are produced using chemistry in some form, manufacturing activity is an important indicator for chemical demand. Manufacturing output eased by 0.1% in June (3MMA). The 3MMA trend in manufacturing production was mixed, with gains in the output of motor vehicles, aerospace, iron and steel, oil and gas extraction, and rubber products.

Compared with June 2021, U.S. chemical production was ahead by 2.5%, a slower rate of growth than last month. Chemical production was higher than a year ago in all regions except the Gulf Coast, which was 0.5% lower. 

I would expect the high-volume chemical manufacturing industry to show signs of slowing; hopefully this doesn't spill over into employment as well. 

Chemical Activity Barometer down 0.5% in August

From the American Chemistry Council:

WASHINGTON, Aug. 31, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 0.5% in August on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following steadily easing gains in May, June and July. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 12.5% in August (3MMA).

The unadjusted data show a 1.6% decline in August after flat readings in July and June. The diffusion index eased to 82% in August. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for July was revised downward by 0.53 points and the reading for June was revised downward by 0.33 points. The August data are provisional and subject to revision.

"The latest CAB reading is consistent with expansion of commerce, trade and industry, but clearly growth has peaked, with slower growth ahead." said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In August, production-related indicators were up slightly. Trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry improved. Resins and chemistry used in other durable goods increased. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications showed gains. Performance chemistry for industry was solid and exports grew. Equity prices declined amid geopolitical uncertainty and fears about the Delta variant. Product and input prices expanded.

Inventory and other supply chain indicators were positive.

If the economy starts cooling off in general, it's possible the very hot chemistry job market might slow down, especially since the CAB sounds like it's been dialing back since May - here's hoping otherwise. 

Best wishes to all of us. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 1.2% in May

From the American Chemistry Council: 

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.2% in May on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.0% increase in April. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 18.6% in May (3MMA).

The unadjusted data show a 1.0% increase in May following a 0.9% gain in April. The diffusion index reached 100% in May. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for April was revised upward by 0.91 points and the reading for March was revised upward by 0.16 points. The May data are provisional and subject to revision.

"The latest CAB reading is consistent with marked expansion of commerce, trade and industry," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

In May, production-related indicators were positive. Despite some recent weakness in housing – a reflection of higher interest rates and prices as well as labor and supply-side constraints – trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry were solid. Aided by strength in automotive markets, resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong. Gains in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive. Performance chemistry for industry was largely positive. Exports were positive, while equity prices gained, reaching new records. Product and input prices were positive, as were inventory and other supply chain indicators.

 Good news for both chemists and the broader economy. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 0.7% in March

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (April 27, 2021) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.7% in April on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.1% increase in March and a 0.9% gain in February. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 12.0% in April (3MMA).

The unadjusted data show a 0.3% increase in April following a 1.4% gain in March. The diffusion index reached 100% in April. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for March was revised downward by 0.35 points and the reading for February was revised downward by 0.58 points. The April data are provisional and subject to revision.

“The latest CAB reading is consistent with solid expansion of commerce, trade and industry,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

In April, production-related indicators were positive. Trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry were solid, indicative of robust gains in this sector. Resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong, reflecting growing orders for light vehicles, furniture, capital equipment, consumer electronics and other durable goods. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive, a mark of rising consumer spending. Performance chemistry for industry was largely positive, reflecting strength in manufacturing. U.S. exports were positive. Equity prices showed further gains. Product and input prices were positive, as were inventory and other supply chain indicators.

Good news that the broader economy continues to do all right. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 1.2% in March

Via the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON, March 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.2% in March on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 5.5% in March.

The unadjusted data show a 1.2% gain in March following a 0.9% gain in February. The diffusion index rebounded to 82% in March, well above the long-term average of 58%. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for February was revised upward by 0.18 points and the reading for January was revised downward by 0.57 points. The March data are provisional and subject to revision.

"The latest CAB reading is consistent with solid expansion of commerce, trade and industry into the fourth quarter," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In March, production-related indicators were positive. Trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry were solid and suggest further expansion past the weak February home sales and housing starts. Resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive. Performance chemistry for industry was mixed. U.S. exports were positive, while equity prices showed further gains. Product and input prices were positive, as were inventory and other supply chain indicators.

Well, here's hoping the trend continues and strengthens! 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 1.0% in February

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (February 23, 2021) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.0% in February on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.8% increase in January. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 1.3% in February.

The unadjusted data show a 0.3% gain in February following a 2.0% increase in January. The diffusion index eased to 77% in February. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for January was revised upward by 0.90 points and that for December was revised downward by 0.03 points. Keep in mind that the February data are provisional and subject to revision.

“With ten months of gains, the latest CAB reading is consistent with expansion in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

In February, production-related indicators were positive. Trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry were solid. Resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive. Performance chemistry for industry was strong. U.S. exports were positive, while equity prices increased. Product and input prices were positive, as were inventory and other supply chain indicators.

That's good news for the broader economy, which is good news for chemists.  

Chemical Activity Barometer up 1.5% in December

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (January 26, 2021) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.5% in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.3% increase in December. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 1.3% in January.

The unadjusted data show a 1.2% gain in January, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in December. The diffusion index climbed to 79% in January from 71% in December. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for December was revised upward by 1.02 points and that for November was revised upward by 0.94 points. As always, the January data are provisional and subject to revision.

“With nine months of gains, the latest CAB reading is consistent with expansion in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In January, production-related indicators were positive. Trends in construction-related resins and related performance chemistry were solid and suggest further gains in housing, a sector that has performed well during the COVID-19 recession. Reflecting strength in light vehicles and new business investment, resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong. Gains in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive. Performance chemistry for industry was strong, reflecting a strong manufacturing sector. U.S. exports were positive, while equity prices increased. Product and input prices were positive, as were inventory and other supply chain indicators.

Good news for the housing and automotive sectors. Best wishes to all of us. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 1.1% in December

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON, Dec. 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.1% in December on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, unchanged from November and October. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 1.1% percent in December.

The unadjusted data show a 0.7% gain in December following a 1.8% increase in November and a 0.7% gain in October. The diffusion index was stable at 71% in December. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for November was revised upward by 0.24 points and that for October was revised upward by 0.89 points. These were highly volatile months for the data. As always, the December data are provisional and subject to revision.

"With eight consecutive months of gains, the December CAB reading is consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In December, production-related indicators were positive. Despite strength in housing activity, trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were mixed. Reflecting strength in manufacturing, resins and chemistry used in other durable goods were strong. Gains in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive and suggest further growth in retail sales. Performance chemistry for industry continued to expand. U.S. exports were positive, while equity prices increased, but at a slower pace. Product and input prices were modestly positive. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were positive.

 Good news, let's hope it continues into the new year. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up 0.8% in November

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (November 24, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.8 percent in November on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 1.0 percent gain in October. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 2.4 percent in November.

The unadjusted data show a 1.3 percent gain in November following a 0.5 percent gain in October and a 0.7 percent gain in September. The diffusion index eased from 76 percent to 71 percent in November. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for October was revised upward by 0.38 points and the reading for September was revised downward by 0.06 points. These were highly volatile months for the data. The November data are provisional and subject to revision.

“With seven straight months of gains, the November CAB reading is consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In November, production-related indicators were positive. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were mixed. Resins and chemistry used in light vehicles and other durable goods were strong. Gains in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were positive. Performance chemistry for industry rebounded and U.S. exports were mixed. Equity prices rebounded and product and input prices were positive. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were positive.

Well, that's good news. Here's hoping it continues into the new year. 

Chemical Activity Barometer Up 0.9% in October

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (October 27, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.9 percent in October on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, a marked deceleration from the 1.5 percent gain in September and 2.6 percent gain in August. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was down 3.3 percent in October.

The unadjusted data show a 0.1 percent gain in October following a 0.8 percent gain in September and a 1.9 percent gain in August. The diffusion index eased from 65 percent to 59 percent in October. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for September was revised downward by 0.26 points and the reading for August was revised downward by 0.30 points. These were volatile months for the data.

“With six consecutive months of gains, the October CAB reading remains consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In October, production-related indicators were mixed. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were largely positive. Resins and chemistry used in light vehicles and other durable goods were positive. Gains in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed. Performance chemistry and U.S. exports were mixed. Equity prices rebounded, while product and input prices were positive. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were positive.

 Hopefully, the upward trend continues. 

Chemical Activity Barometer rose 1.6% in September

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (September 29, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.6 percent in September on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 2.7 percent gain in August. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was down 4.3 percent in September.

The unadjusted data show a 0.7 percent gain in September following a 2.2 percent gain in August and a 1.9 percent gain in July. The diffusion index rose from 35 percent to 65 percent in September. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for August was revised upward by 0.89 points and that for July was revised upward by 0.42 points.

“With five consecutive months of gains, the September CAB reading is consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

...In September, production-related indicators were mixed. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were positive and suggest further gains. Resins and chemistry used in light vehicles and other durable goods were positive. Gain in plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed as economic recovery in the service sector slows. Performance chemistry improved, while U.S. exports were mixed. Equity prices flattened, while product and input prices were fairly stable. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were positive.

 Glad to hear things are on the rise in the broader economy. 

August 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer up 2.5% (3MMA)

From the American Chemistry Council:

WASHINGTON (August 25, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose by 2.5 percent in August on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 3.0 percent gain in July. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was down 6.1 percent in August. 

The unadjusted data show a 1.8 percent gain in August following a 1.5 percent gain in July and a 4.1 percent gain in June. The diffusion index rose from 41 percent to 59 percent this month – the first time since January that it has been above 50 percent. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for July was revised upward by 1.08 points and that for June was revised upward by 0.77 points. 

“With four consecutive months of gains, the latest CAB reading is consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy, which is likely to be slow,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The August reading is only 5.8 percent below its pre-coronavirus level, and the indicator appears to be improving at a fairly good pace.”

Good to see things are slowing coming back; I imagine this augurs relatively well for chemical industry employment for the rest of the year. 

June 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (June 30, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), eased 0.3 percent in June on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 4.6 percent decline in May. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 12.0 percent in June. 

The unadjusted data show a 3.5 percent gain in June following a 2.2 percent gain in May and a 6.3 percent decline in April. The diffusion index rose from 35 percent to 53 percent. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for May was revised upward by 2.68 points and the April reading was revised upward by 0.05 points. 

“While the latest CAB reading is consistent with a recession, two consecutive months of gains in the unadjusted data is a positive development,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “We’ll want to see at least another month of gains in order to conclude that the economy has turned a corner.”  

 Here's hoping this turns around. 

May 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer down 5.4%, "consistent with a recession"

From the American Chemistry Council:

WASHINGTON (May 26, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 5.4 percent in May on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 5.4 percent decline in April. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 12.4 percent in May. 

The unadjusted May data shows a 0.3 percent decline following a 6.3 percent drop in April and an 8.9 percent decline in March. The diffusion index fell from 35 percent to 29 percent in May as production declines became more widespread. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The April CAB reading was revised upward by 0.37 points and the March reading was revised downward by 0.08 points. 

“The May CAB reading is consistent with a recession, but given the small unadjusted decline of only 0.3 percent, one that may bottom out,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. 

Production-related indicators declined in May. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were negative, as were resins used in appliances, light vehicles, machinery and other durable goods. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed. Performance chemistry was negative and U.S. exports were weak. Equity prices are improving and product and input prices are firming. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were negative.

Well, that's bad news. Hopefully, we will find the bottom of this very soon as Dr. Swift tentatively suggests. 

Chemical Activity Barometer fell 5.5% in April; chief economist says "consistent with a recession"

From the inbox (emphasis mine):  

WASHINGTON (April 28, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 5.5 percent in April on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a downwardly revised 2.9 percent decline in March. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 7.3 percent in April.  

The unadjusted data shows a 6.7 percent decline in April following an 8.9 percent decline in March and a 1.0 percent decline in February. The diffusion index slumped from 47 percent to 35 percent in April. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for March was revised downward by 1.04 points and that for February was revised upward by 0.07 points. 

“The latest CAB reading is consistent with a recession,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The declines of April and March are the most pronounced, pervasive and persistent in the post-World War II period.” 

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.
Production-related indicators generally declined in April. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were generally negative. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed. Performance chemistry was negative and U.S. exports were weak. Equity prices are improving. Product and input prices were negative. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were negative. 

The CAB is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. Due to its early position in the supply chain, chemical industry activity has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the broader economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so a three-month moving average of the CAB reading is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Well, that's no good. It will be important to watch the CAB to tell us when the economy comes back on the upswing... (But we'll get the official 1st quarter estimate Wednesday morning, so that will be important confirmaton of what this looks like.) 

American Chemistry Council: "Chemical Activity Barometer Falls Sharply In March"

Credit: American Chemistry Council

From the trade group for large chemical manufacturers, this grim news (emphasis mine): 

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 2.6 percent in March on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 1.3 percent in March. 

The unadjusted data shows an 8.0 percent decline in March following a 1.1 percent decline in February and a 1.2 percent gain in January. The unadjusted decline in March is the largest in the post-World War II period. The diffusion index slumped to 27 percent in March. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for February was revised downward by 1.13 points and that for January was revised downward by 0.38 points. 

"The CAB signals recessionary conditions in U.S. commerce," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. "ACC believes a recession to be occurring when the barometer declines for three consecutive months and falls 3.0 percent or more from the peak. As of March, the CAB has declined for two straight months and fallen 8.9 percent from the peak." 

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.
Production-related indicators generally declined in March. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were generally negative. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were generally negative. Performance chemistry was negative and U.S. exports were weak. Equity prices collapsed, but are improving this week. Product and input prices declined. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were negative.

Well, that's not good news. Best wishes to us all. 

Chemical Activity Barometer up in January

From the American Chemistry Council: 

WASHINGTON (January 21, 2020) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), jumped 0.6 percent in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.1 percent gain in December. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 1.4 percent. 

The unadjusted January data showed a 1.0 percent gain following a 0.5 percent increase in December and a 0.4 percent gain in November. The diffusion index rose to 62 percent in January. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for December was revised upward by 0.33 points and that for November was revised downward by 0.22 points. 

“The CAB signals gains in U.S. commerce into the third quarter of 2020,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.

Well, that's good news. Here's hoping it keeps chemist jobs safe.  

Chemical Activity Barometer is stable in November

Well, this is better than a kick in the shins:

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), was stable (0.0 percent change) in November on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.3 percent decline in October. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was off 0.2 percent (3MMA). 

The unadjusted data showed a solid 0.6 percent gain and was driven by increases among all four components. The diffusion index rose to 59 percent in November. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for October was revised upward by 0.16 points and that for September by 0.18 points. 

"The CAB signals slow gains in U.S. commerce into mid-year 2020," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. 

The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

It's hard to make a judgment based off a single indicator, but in this case, I think that "no news is good news" and that our expectations about an economic downturn in 2020 do not seem to have much data to bolster them. That said, dreams of massive chemical industry employment increase don't have much backing either. 

Chemical Activity Barometer Is Slightly Down In August

From the American Chemistry Council (the trade group for large chemical companies):

WASHINGTON (August 27, 2019) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 0.1 percent in August on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a similar drop in July and four months of gains. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was flat at 0.0 percent (3MMA). 

The unadjusted measure of the CAB fell 0.5 percent in August after a 0.1 percent gain in July. The diffusion index was 59 percent in August. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for July was revised upward by 0.58 points and that for June by 0.62 points. 

“A pattern of fluctuating CAB readings – months up followed by months down – indicates late-cycle activity,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The barometer signals gains in U.S. commerce into early 2020, but at a slow pace, while rising volatility suggests change may be coming.”

Well, Kevin Swift isn't calling it a bagel, but I feel like he's shopping in the bread aisle.