C&EN: ACC predicts a sluggish 2024

Via C&EN's Alex Tullo, this grim news:

The US chemical industry had a tough 2023, and next year it will have to weather a tougher economic climate, possibly even a downturn.

That was the message delivered by the American Chemistry Council, a chemical industry trade group, in its industry forecast on Nov. 28. The ACC estimates that the industry’s output, excluding pharmaceuticals, will decline by 1.0% in 2023. It predicts a modest turnaround to 1.5% growth next year.

“We saw weakness really emerge last year in the third quarter, and it’s continued through much of this year,” ACC chief economist Martha Gilchrist Moore told reporters on a conference call.

...For example, Moore pointed out, student loan repayments are starting up again, credit card debt defaults are increasing, and consumers have worked through much of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic.

After posting 2.3% growth in gross domestic product in 2023, the US will experience economic growth of only 1.1% in 2024, the ACC expects.

There is this weird aspect of the economy these days, where there is a lot of negative data from standard economic indicators, and yet it does not yet seem to have shown up in the unemployment numbers (which, I imagine, are a lagging and not a leading indicator.) I do not wish it to be so (for many reasons) but I am concerned that 2024 will be a worse hiring year for industrially-oriented chemists than 2023, but I don't really have a great sense of this.