Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Early 4th quarter GDP estimates

From Calculated Risk: 

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect growth to slow to 3% qoq saar in 4Q amid the stimulus stalemate. [Oct 30 estimate] emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.5%. [Nov 3 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 30 estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 3.4 percent on November 2, up from 2.2 percent on October 30. [Nov 2 estimate]

Well, here's hoping things get better...

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