Monday, February 22, 2021

Q1 2021 GDP looking good?

From Calculated Risk, this perspective on early 2021 GDP forecasts: 
From Merrrill Lynch: Retail sales boosted our 1Q21 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to 5.5% qoq saar. [Feb 19 estimate] emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp to +6.0% (qoq ar). [Feb 17 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 8.3% for 2021:Q1. [Feb 19 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 9.5 percent on February 18 [Feb 18 estimate]

Well, that's good news. Here's hoping it comes to pass.  

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