A key measure of economic output fell for the second straight quarter, raising fears that the United States could be entering a recession — or perhaps that one had already begun.Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That drop followed a decline of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. The estimates for both periods will be revised in coming months as government statisticians get more complete data.News of the back-to-back contractions heightened a debate in Washington over whether a recession had begun and, if so, whether President Biden was to blame. Economists largely say that conditions do not meet the formal definition of a recession but that the risks of one are rising.For most people, though, a “recession” label matters less than the economic reality: Growth is slowing, businesses are pulling back and families are having a harder time keeping up with rapidly rising prices.
Friday, July 29, 2022
Q2 GDP growth was negative
Via the New York Times:
I am a pretty big stickler for the NBER definition of a recession, i.e. I don't think two quarters of negative growth automatically mean we're in a recession etc etc. But nevertheless, I think I was right - hiring in the fall of 2022 will be worse than that of fall 2021 in the economy as a whole. What does that mean for chemists and hiring? I do not know. We're not seeing (yet) major news of layoffs in either pharma or the chemical industry, so that's good. We shall see...