Economists quantify the impact of NIH funding delays

Via Marginal Revolution: 

We study how delays in NIH grant funding affect the career outcomes of research personnel. Using comprehensive earnings and tax records linked to university transaction data along with a difference-in-differences design, we find that a funding interruption of more than 30 days has a substantial effect on job placements for personnel who work in labs with a single NIH R01 research grant, including a 3 percentage point (40%) increase in the probability of not working in the US. 

Incorporating information from the full 2020 Decennial Census and data on publications, we find that about half of those induced into nonemployment appear to permanently leave the US and are 90% less likely to publish in a given year, with even larger impacts for trainees (postdocs and graduate students). Among personnel who continue to work in the US, we find that interrupted personnel earn 20% less than their continuously-funded peers, with the largest declines concentrated among trainees and other non-faculty personnel (such as staff and undergraduates). Overall, funding delays account for about 5% of US nonemployment in our data, indicating that they have a meaningful effect on the scientific labor force at the national level.

From the conclusions of the paper: 

Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that when the renewal of a PI’s R01 is interrupted, their hired personnel are immediately and persistently less likely to work in the US at least up to five years later.

I suppose it is not a surprise that impacts to a PI's funding situation negatively impact their laboratories, but it is important to see it quantified. It makes you wonder if having more R01's available would be better or worse in the long term for the scientific labor force.