Monday, June 22, 2020

Merrill Lynch and Goldman estimate Q2 GDP down 33-35%

Via Calculated Risk, the latest forecasts for the second quarter of 2020:
Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 33% Q2 decline is around 8% decline from Q1 (SA). 
From Merrill Lynch: We revise up 2Q GDP to -35% qoq saar from -40% and 3Q to 20% from 7%, given the faster and more successful reopening. [June 18 estimate] 
From Goldman Sachs: We have adjusted our real GDP growth forecasts and now expect -33% in Q2, +33% in Q3, and +8% in Q4 (vs. -36%, +29%, and +11% previously) in qoq annualized terms. [June 18 estimate]
Well, that's bad. Here's hoping the damage isn't too deep. 

1 comment:

  1. Many European countries did stricter lock-downs and kept them in place longer and now have relatively low coronavirus numbers. In the US we opened up a bit early and still have moderately high coronavirus numbers. It will be interesting to see how the next 6 months play out and to compare economic data and per capita death rates between the US and European countries at the end of the year.


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