Monday, January 2, 2017

CJ's terrible, bad, huge miss predictions for 2016

Via an e-mail with a friend, my predictions for 2016, written on January 18, 2016:
1. GDP (as measured by the US Conference Board) will average less than 2.4% for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016.
2. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls will increase less than 2.5% for 2016.
3. Seasonally adjusted U3 unemployment will go no lower than 4.9% and will, at some point in 2016, be higher than 5.5%.
4. Seasonally adjusted U6 unemployment (broadest measure) will go no lower than 9.0%.
5. The highest monthly number in 2016 for the Case-Shiller 20 city index will be lower than the annual average for 2015.
6. There will be two or more major R&D site closures in Big Pharma.
7. There will not be a major (how to define?) outbreak of Ebola.
8. Hillary Clinton will be elected President.
9. Cruz, Rubio or Bush will be the Republican nominee.
10. The Democrats will capture the Senate. 
Wrong: #2, #3, 5, #6, #8, #9, #10

Jury is still out: #1 (need to find these numbers, but I think I'm right for Q1 and Q2, wrong for Q3)

Correct: #4, #7

Anyone with bold predictions for 2017? Falsifiable predictions, please.

UPDATE: Hey, I was right about the S&P 500! 


  1. Half of us will be in concentration camps by June.

  2. " No member of Donald Trump's family will enter military service.

    " The phrase "You lost, get over it" will be said often to Hillary Clinton supporters and those who fly the Confederate flag.

    " Some of Trump's 282 campaign promises will be fulfilled.


looks like Blogger doesn't work with anonymous comments from Chrome browsers at the moment - works in Microsoft Edge, or from Chrome with a Blogger account - sorry! CJ 3/21/20