Monday, January 3, 2022

The Fed looks to start tightening | what will this do to the job market?

Over at Calculated Risk, Bill McBride notes what Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed is going to do: 
"High inflation is likely to keep the Fed on a quarterly tightening path next year. We expect the FOMC to raise rates three times starting in March and to announce the start of balance sheet runoff, which is likely to proceed more quickly than last cycle. Our forecast calls for three additional hikes per year in 2023 and 2024 and a terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%."

I'm not sure I remember a time in which there were three rate hikes in a single year - maybe 1999 or 2000? In my final column at C&EN, I made this pseudo-prediction for hiring in 2022: 

Will this strong hiring trend end in 2022? I genuinely do not know. Many uncertainties remain. If supply-chain crises continue, it will inevitably impact revenues for large-scale chemical manufacturers, especially those who sell to the automotive and housing sectors. Increasing inflation and corresponding interest-rate increases could also play a role in cooling down the broader economy, resulting in potential slowdowns in hiring.

While I cannot predict the future, I am extremely confident in advising people to apply now. Do not wait until “the right time,” whether it’s next month or next year. Do the work of putting together a résumé and a cover letter as soon as possible. This is an unusually good time to be a job seeker in industrial chemistry. Here’s hoping for a 2022 in which we can be free of this pandemic and we all have that job that we are seeking.

I am still confident (around a month later) that I am right - that interest rate hikes will slow down industrial chemistry hiring*, even in the red-hot pharma market. Maybe I'm wrong (there's plenty of folks who think business is still good), but we shall see. 

*just to narrow in even further, I'm not saying "hiring will slow to a trickle", just "fall 2022 probably won't be as hot as fall 2021." 

1 comment:



looks like Blogger doesn't work with anonymous comments from Chrome browsers at the moment - works in Microsoft Edge, or from Chrome with a Blogger account - sorry! CJ 3/21/20