Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election day prediction

293 HRC/245 DJT.

Popular vote: 51% HRC/47% DJT

What's your prediction?

UPDATE: There's a much longer post that I need to write with an acquiescence to Paul Hodges. Last year, I made the following comments about what I now see as a rather prescient post about political risk, where Mr. Hodges made the suggestion that political risk was going to be a lot higher in 2016:
...Readers, I don't know a darn thing about UK or French politics, but I am quite sure that neither Trump nor Carson will become the GOP nominee. I have no idea who will win the GOP nomination, but the trend of presidents being former governors, senators, vice presidents and the odd 5-star general isn't going to be broken anytime soon, in my humble opinion.... 
I personally would love $30/barrel oil (I figure that would drop gas well into the $2.50/gallon range or below), but I don't see that happening either.
Of course, as it turns out, Donald Trump is indeed the GOP nominee and we actually did get $30/barrel oil. Paul Hodges was right, and I was proven wrong.

This was brought to mind (as of 8 PM Eastern) when one of the major issues of the evening to be decided will be this ballot initiative about pharmaceutical price controls in California (article by John Carroll):
A week ago, Proposition 61 looked like a sure winner for its advocates. With sentiment running strongly against Big Pharma companies, polls showed plenty of support for a ballot measure in California that would cap drug prices for the state at the level that the Veterans Administration reaches through price negotiations. 
But with the vote now just hours away, the industry is seeing the polling results leaning to a dead heat after throwing more than $100 million into the fight, which is reaching a fever pitch in the hours before final voting begins.... 
...Whatever happens in California, after the election these same pharma execs are likely to face a grueling debate in Washington DC over drug prices, where execs from Mylan, Valeant and Turing have already had to face dyspeptic lawmakers. Right now, the industry will have to wait and see who comes up a winner on election day Tuesday. But no matter who wins the votes, this is one issue that will not be going away anytime soon....
Assuming this is true, and Big Pharma faces political risk to its revenue model in the future, it seems to me we may see this reflected in future hiring. 

32 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. But wasn't that a decent Radiohead song?

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  2. Trump for a slight edge
    with strong 3rd party

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  3. 323/215, Cinton win

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    1. Anin 11:10 here... forgot to add: Clinton 49 %, Trump 46%

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  4. Neither candidate get 270, the House of Representatives then chooses Newt Gingrich as the 45th POTUS.

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    1. I don't think that can happen...has to be top three in EC. The only non-Trump candidates that could be President would be either McMullin or Johnson; choosing McMullin will probably start a war in the GOP, while I think Johnson's a nonstarter for the GOP. If it goes to the House, it's Trump, I think.

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  5. trump takes florida, colorado, pennsylvania, and maybe michigan for around 290. Clinton has been campaigning lately in states that should have been solid blue. it's a paradigm shift.

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    1. I've been hearing about a possible Trumpslide all year, still possible.

      As you say, paradigm shift--now or never. Party realignments to follow.

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    2. Pretty good predicting right there, aside from the Colorado part.

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  6. Jeb! comes in with a surprise 538 electoral votes

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  7. Trump +3-5 points in popular vote.

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    1. My prediction: Just as the results are coming in, Elon Musk announces an intergalactic spaceship which will allow us to escape planet earth at warp speed.

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  9. My prediction? Four years of name-calling, misery and fractiousness.

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    Replies
    1. Four MORE years.

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    2. BW--The less I think about how linear and continuous these trends are, the less depressed I feel. Please don't take that away from me.

      --Anon 11:57

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  10. My prediction is legal weed in Cali... hay hay hay!!

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  11. HRC 47 %, 278
    DJT 43 %, 260

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  12. HRC 48% DJT 44% GJ 4% EM 2%
    HRC 290 DJT 248

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    Replies
    1. I forgot about GJ, etc. Hmmmmmmm

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    2. That's OK, I forgot about Stein. Oops.

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    3. Not my positions but I have a soft spot for Stein, she seems the only one in the race with honest heartfelt positions. A very retro candidate.

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  13. HRC: 50%, 290
    Cheeto: 248, 46%
    GJ: 3%
    Stein: 1%

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    1. If the choice really was a "Cheeto", I would've been able to vote with a clear conscience today. VOTE SNACK FOODS IN 2016.

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    2. Anon 3:10pm, no electioneering, please.

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  14. HRC 287
    DJT 251
    USA 0.....

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  15. Woof, LAUT predicting 352 HRC votes.....http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/elections/la-na-election-day-2016-updates-htmlstory.html

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  16. It doesn't matter who you vote for, because you're all doomed. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMeeed!!!1111!!!!

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