Popular vote: 51% HRC/47% DJT
What's your prediction?
UPDATE: There's a much longer post that I need to write with an acquiescence to Paul Hodges. Last year, I made the following comments about what I now see as a rather prescient post about political risk, where Mr. Hodges made the suggestion that political risk was going to be a lot higher in 2016:
...Readers, I don't know a darn thing about UK or French politics, but I am quite sure that neither Trump nor Carson will become the GOP nominee. I have no idea who will win the GOP nomination, but the trend of presidents being former governors, senators, vice presidents and the odd 5-star general isn't going to be broken anytime soon, in my humble opinion....
I personally would love $30/barrel oil (I figure that would drop gas well into the $2.50/gallon range or below), but I don't see that happening either.Of course, as it turns out, Donald Trump is indeed the GOP nominee and we actually did get $30/barrel oil. Paul Hodges was right, and I was proven wrong.
This was brought to mind (as of 8 PM Eastern) when one of the major issues of the evening to be decided will be this ballot initiative about pharmaceutical price controls in California (article by John Carroll):
A week ago, Proposition 61 looked like a sure winner for its advocates. With sentiment running strongly against Big Pharma companies, polls showed plenty of support for a ballot measure in California that would cap drug prices for the state at the level that the Veterans Administration reaches through price negotiations.
But with the vote now just hours away, the industry is seeing the polling results leaning to a dead heat after throwing more than $100 million into the fight, which is reaching a fever pitch in the hours before final voting begins....
...Whatever happens in California, after the election these same pharma execs are likely to face a grueling debate in Washington DC over drug prices, where execs from Mylan, Valeant and Turing have already had to face dyspeptic lawmakers. Right now, the industry will have to wait and see who comes up a winner on election day Tuesday. But no matter who wins the votes, this is one issue that will not be going away anytime soon....Assuming this is true, and Big Pharma faces political risk to its revenue model in the future, it seems to me we may see this reflected in future hiring.