We are making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously). However, we have upgraded our expectations for the recovery after midyear, with a 19% qoq annualized GDP gain in Q3 (vs. 12% previously). Our estimates imply that a bit more than half of the near-term output decline is made up by year end and that real GDP falls 6.2% in 2020 on an annual-average basis (vs. 3.7% in our previous forecast).It's gonna be a big hole.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Goldman Sachs projections on Tuesday: real GDP falls 6.2% in 2020
This is going to be a moving target, but it's good to be aware. Via Calculated Risk (a favorite blog that I was glad to stop reading for a while), Goldman Sachs economic projections as of Tuesday, March 31: