Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Geopolitical news diversion

Bold predictions:

1. This drop in oil prices won't last. I predict that there will be no Russian bond default in 2015.

2. Anyone want to predict when pharma will start moving manufacturing to Cuba, now that the US will be normalizing relations? 

2 comments:

  1. If there's no default it will be because they institute currency controls like Indonesia did in the 90s. Oil prices will only go up if even more violence happens in the middle east or the Saudi's successfully drive shale and tarsand oil off the market. There's still a ways to go for that to happen from what I've read.

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  2. Oil price drop is more about weakness in global economy. There is a glut of oil on the market and not much demand. Oil will go lower until the central banks pledge more support. You only have to look at today's FOMC meeting and see what I mean. Yellen hints that no rate hikes will happen soon (i.e. continued support), and the stock market goes up.

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