Physician demand continues to grow faster than supply leading to a projected total physician shortfall of between 61,700 and 94,700 physicians by 2025. As with the 2015 projections, under every combination of scenarios modeled, an overall physician shortage is projected. Though this total projected shortfall exceeds the 46,100 to 90,400 physician shortfall estimated by the 2015 study (Exhibits ES-1 and ES-2), the 2016 updated projections of a physician shortfall in 2025 are of a similar magnitude to the 2015 projections. Differences between the 2016 update and the 2015 projections largely reflect the use of more recent data and improvements to methods.Obviously, this is a projection and the world is woefully short on accurate soothsayers. For what it is worth, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also sees a 14% increase in positions for physicians and surgeons for the 2014-2024 time period, which is faster than the 7% growth projected for all jobs.
*Note to my employers: I really like my job, and I like hanging out with my kids. Neither of those things are compatible with going to medical school.
(Other caveats: wage growth, unemployment, difficulty in getting medical education, etc., etc.)