Monday, April 4, 2016

Bagel watch 2016

...Later this year, Webster said, prices will likely dip once more below $30, a level low enough to shake some high-cost producers, largely in the U.S., out of the market. Prices will climb once that bottom is reached to average about $44 this year. Webster sees prices inching up higher in 2017. 
Despite harrowing signs such as low oil prices, meager stock market performance, and deep recessions in Russia and Brazil, IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh put the probability of a global recession at 25%—and one in the U.S. at a mere 20%. Strong consumer spending is bolstering the U.S. economy, offsetting poor performance in manufacturing. Behravesh also observes strength in Europe and Japan. 
Behravesh does see China as a threat to the world’s economy. Its current annual growth rate of 6.9%, astronomical by Western standards, is its lowest since 1990. He notices alarming structural problems in the country, such as higher debt levels than in the U.S. before the financial crisis of the late 2000s....
In other evidence of an economic downturn a bagel, here's the American Chemistry Council's Chemical Activity Barometer for March:
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), expanded 0.1 percent in March following a revised 0.2 percent decline in February and 0.1 percent downward revision in January. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 1.5 percent over this time last year, a marked deceleration of activity from one year ago when the barometer logged a 2.7 percent year-over-year gain from 2014. On an unadjusted basis the CAB jumped 0.9 percent, thus ending three consecutive monthly declines.
I still don't think there will be a "technical" recession bagel (e.g. negative growth for 2 quarters in a row) in 2016 or 2017, but there might be data to support predictions that there will be one. Readers? 

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